[blml] Another claim with inadequate statement

[Tim West-Meads]

Herman wrote:

> Tim:There is a problem because even if declarer is aware of the small 
> trump  he hasn't counted either black suit and cannot be sure which 
> line might  succeed (his RHO could have a doubleton Spade).
> 
> Precisely my point. If declarer has not miscounted trumps, then why 
> is he claiming this way? So the statement, while we should believe 
> it, is rather impossible.

Because his "mistake" was not a miscount of trumps but a failure to 
recognise a possible entry problem or to watch the C pips.  Unlike the 
original poster I have no opportunity to question declarer but if it is 
agreed that nobody at the table thinks declarer miscounted trumps that's 
what I will work with.

> Tell me honestly, Tim, if there 
>  > were no second trump out, and declarer claims the same way, adding 
> > at  some point "yes of course you get your high trump", would you 
> > rule  against him?  Tim: No, but in that scenario declarer's 
> > statement is typical of "cashing  winners from hand - ruff when you 
> like" - there's no complexity in the  play no possible entry problem, 
> no possible 4th trick for the defence.
>  
> And this statement (I take 6 of 7 tricks, all high) is exactly the 
> same one. So here too, there is no reason to attribute to declarer a 
> line in which he plays the C7 to be high.

The difference between the two cases is that with a small trump known to 
be out declarer may be presumed to make an effort to draw that trump - 
with only a high trump out declarer has no worries about a S being ruffed.

> No Tim, this line of yours is not a normal one. So if you insist on 
> believing the TD that declarer was aware of a small trump being out, 
> you must restrict yourself to lines in which declarer goes to the 
> table twice in order to extract that small trump.

Which is, of course, exactly what my line involved - crossing twice in D 
(totally safe from ruffs) before cashing any side-suit winners which 
might be ruffed.  The start: DA, D ruff, force out the high trump is 
100% normal and correct (since any return but a S solves the problem and 
all options remain open).  Winning the S return is also normal (indeed 
compulsory).  At this point one has choices between the successful "try 
to cash one spade", the inferior "cross in D and hope C is good (if C33 
or maybe 9 has gone but avoiding any possible S ruff)", or the careless 
"play a D in order to draw last the trump without noticing the entry 
problem".  Maybe my judgement is way off-beam but the last of these is 
typical of what I call "careless play" perpetrated occasionally by 
declarers of all levels.

Tim