[blml] Atlanta NABC Mischief

[Alain Gottcheiner]

At 09:04 26/09/2006 -0700, Marvin French wrote:

>In third seat a light opening is supposed to be lead-directing, so I
>bid 1H with x  AKx  Jxxxx Kxxx, taking a chance. I do such things
>maybe once in 20 sessions, so partner does not expect it, and
>opponents would do well not to expect it. See Law 75B.

About one hand in 6 is a light opener (law of 17-19) ; therefore about one 
hand in 24 is a 3rd-in-hand light opener.
We will be able to do such an opening only about once in 40 deals, because 
of possible openings before us.
Also, of those hands do not qualify for an opening at all (eg 4333 10-11 
counts with no good lead).
All being accounted for, we can expect to open light, in 3rd hand, on about 
1 deal in 50.

Perhaps some of those figures are approximative, but the general idea is 
correct.

If you open a semi-psyche once every 20 sessions, that is, once about 520 
deals, this means that about 10% of your light 3rd-in-hand openings (and 3% 
of all your 3rd-in-hand openings) will be semi-psuches.

IMOBO, this is far too much to be brushed aside as a psyche ; this is part 
of your system.

Best regards,

    Alain.