[blml] De Whale

[Eric Landau]

At 10:59 AM 4/13/07, Herman wrote:

>Eric Landau wrote:
> > At 09:15 AM 4/13/07, Herman wrote:
> >
> >> But there cannot be ambiguity. Not is some cases. Maybe the Roudi case
> >> is too simple, since there are too many hands where the Roudi bidder
> >> has natural clubs too. Your splinter example was far better in that
> >> sense. The man who bids 4H either has 6 hearts or only one. There is
> >> no ambiguity as to his intentions. And the bid cannot mean both at the
> >> same time. The responder will either pass or go on to 4S or 6S, and
> >> there too is no ambiguity. If both are on the same wavelength, how are
> >> you going to believe them when they say "no agreement".
> >
> > The same way you are going to not believe them: by understanding that
> > even if they are both flipping coins to decide which way to treat 4H,
> > they will wind up "on the same wavelength" 50% of the time -- which
> > means that always believing them and never believing them are equally
> > fallacious.  In Herman's world, they would have no way to recover from
> > the ambiguity inherent in a genuine lack of agreement -- disaster if
> > they guess differently (50% of the time), unfavorable adjustment from
> > Herman if they guess similarly (the other 50% of the time).  In 
> effect,
> > having no agreement becomes a de facto infraction in itself.  In Tim's
> > world, TDs and ACs look at evidence and listen to what the players 
> have
> > to say, decide whether they in fact had "no agreement" as they 
> claimed,
> > and rule accordingly; that's their job.
>
>Eric,
>
>do you really believe a player is going to put all his eggs in one
>basket by bidding 4H (either on a singleton or a 7-card suit) if he
>believes it's a true 50/50 toss of the coin? No, that is a case that I
>don't believe will come up.

Yes, I do.  Because "a true 50/50 toss of the coin" here means that if 
asked the meaning of the call, either answer -- natural or splinter -- 
in isolation, would be correct 50% of the time.  But he will put all 
his eggs in one basket because he expects partner to be "on the same 
wavelength", i.e. that partner will also understand that the nature of 
their actual agreement is a true 50/50 toss of the coin.  That will 
induce partner to "guess" whether 4H is natural or a splinter *based on 
the number of hearts he holds* (possibly combined with other clues from 
the auction).  That he will be able to do this successfully well over 
50% of the time doesn't change the "50/50" nature of the agreement -- 
but may well make putting all his eggs in one basket the best way to 
maximize his expected result.


Eric Landau                     ehaa at starpower.net
1107 Dale Drive                 (301) 608-0347
Silver Spring MD 20910-1607