[blml] Lead Problem

[Konrad Ciborowski]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "raija" <mustikka at charter.net>


>My concern is exactly that, ie. wish to avoid blowing a trick.  Declarer
>*has* announced he has hearts 100% controlled

Yes, he has. So?

>with most likely two stoppers,

You mean partner "most likely" jumped to 2H with six to the jack
or six to the queen? What for? Why would he do that?
Who are we playing with?
Sure, anything is possible in bridge, but what are the odds?
How often do you see people jump do 2H with
Qxxxxx?

The assumption about declarer's two sure stoppers is only a step below
being absurd.

Considering partner's WJO declarer will hold a single
stopper about 90% of the time.
After a WJO a single stopper is usually more than enough
to shut out the pre-emptor - especially holdings like Axx
which allow you to duck twice and in most cases the pre-emptor
won't have a side entry.

Of all possible holdings the heart layout

QJxxxx

xx   Axx

Kx

is the most likely. There are many hands where declarer had
no option but to bid NT - with hands like

xx
Axx
AJxx
KQxx

xxx
Axx
AJxx
KQx

he can hardly bid anything else than 3NT. He cannot make
a T/O dbl (that would be a huge risk - if the 2H
pre-empt is raised opener might keep overbidding them with spades)
and 3H will get us past 3NT if opener fails to
deliver a H stopper.

>therefore heart lead is going to blow a trick or two.  There is no 
>knowledge
>whether a diamond lead blows a trick or not, nor whether it sets the
>contract, but I would rather not make a lead that I already KNOW will blow 
>a
>trick.

This is nonsense. If the 2H overcall has any sense at all the heart lead
will almost never blow a trick.
Sometimes it will but not very often.

Konrad Ciborowski
Kraków, Poland 


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