[blml] Lead Problem

[Konrad Ciborowski]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Adam Beneschan" <adam at irvine.com>
To: <blml at amsterdamned.org>
Cc: <adam at irvine.com>
Sent: Wednesday, August 22, 2007 1:17 AM
Subject: Re: [blml] Lead Problem


>
> Konrad wrote:
>
>> You mean partner "most likely" jumped to 2H with six to the jack
>> or six to the queen? What for? Why would he do that?
>> Who are we playing with?
>> Sure, anything is possible in bridge, but what are the odds?
>> How often do you see people jump do 2H with
>> Qxxxxx?
>
> Lots!!!  Konrad, maybe you don't see it that much in Poland, but at
> favorable vulnerability it's not at all uncommon over here in the US.
> I suspect that in England and Australia it's even more common---they
> seem to be maniacs when it comes to preempting.

If partner has Qxxxxx and nothing more chances are
that a diamond lead won't do any good either.
The diamond lead will most likely blow a trick, too. Declarer will usually
end up with 12 tricks after both red suit leads.
This scenario is not very likely anyway - the opponents
never made a slam try and with 28 HCP between them
they would usually do.

If, on the other hand, partner holds Qxxxxx and some side honors
(say Kxx Qxxxxx Axx x) then it will mean that a jump overcall was plain 
stupidity.
Pre-empting on a weak suit with side defensive tricks - so that
when they nail us and collect 800 they have no contract
to make of their own.
That some people do it nonetheless doesn't make it any less idiotic.
Especially that a pre-empt was made in front of an unpassed partner.

To sum up - even if your style is aggressive then in most
cases partner will deliver a suit of some quality.
Partner has 6+H with at least one honor, right?
So the odds that he has some other honor in hearts,
his longest suit, overwhelm the odds of that other honor
being in diamonds. By far.
As I said - it is possible for partner to have some help
in diamonds and relatively weak hearts and a diamond
lead will be a killer (xxx Q1098xx Jx xx
and HAJx in declarer's hand with diamonds split 3-3)
but it is simply a wildly anti-percentage action.

At IMPs I can understand the diamond lead because if
partner has strong hearts then he rarely will have a side
entry so we won't beat the contract. But at pairs
a diamond lead is a typical case of junior bridge -
an action against the odds in an attempt to
strike gold.

Konrad Ciborowski
Kraków, Poland



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