[blml] Protect with 2 HCP?

[Hirsch Davis]

----- Original Message ----
From: Guthrie <guthrie at ntlworld.com>
To: BLML <blml at rtflb.org>
Sent: Thursday, August 23, 2007 6:53:14 PM
Subject: [blml] Protect with 2 HCP?

Guthrie:

[John Probst and Mathias Schueller published 2 interesting Bridge law
problems in the Brighton Bulletin]

Q1 is setting you up so beware
You hold S:Qxxxxx H:xx D:xxx C:xx
(1N 12-14) _P (P) ??
You bid 2S and that scores +140. How do you feel if partner hesitated
over the 1N opener?

Hirsch:

Note: I do not have enough details of the methods used, particulary in NT 
defense, to be sure that my analysis applies to any methods but my own.

What do I know that is AI?  Opponents think it's a part score hand, which 
gives partner around a 14 point minimum. We double with equivalent strength 
to opener, yet partner did not.  Our NT defense emphasizes 1 and 2 suited 
hands, but can be awkward with 4-4-4-1.  So, the likelihood is that he did 
not double was fear that I would pull to a short suit, although there are 
other possibilities. With length in spades and NT on my right, I've got a 
pretty good idea where his shortness is.  All of that is prior to 
considering the pause. Did the UI tell me something I already didn't know? I 
don't think so. He could have a bit of extra strength, but decided not to 
risk the double because of the shortness flaw, or perhaps less strength and 
the opponents missed a game. More importantly, did the UI suggest one LA 
over another? I don't really want to play that anemic spade suit opposite a 
singleton, and don't think 2S was a LA if my analysis of the hand is 
correct. However, if the pause means that he's stronger than I think, it 
might be worth pulling to the spades anyway, so the UI might suggest 2S.  If 
the pause means that he's weaker than I think, on the low end of a double, 
2S could be a massacre against a missed game by the opponents, so that 
interpretation of the UI suggests pass.  I can't interpret the UI as 
suggesting anything, and by the time I reach this point, everyone at the 
table is getting impatient and waiting for my call. Pass and let the TD sort 
it out.  I've got too few points for that particular auction, and have a 
strong suspicion based on AI, not UI, that I know why.

However, the question is how I feel about 2S after it scores 140.  Pretty 
silly actually, as my analysis of the hand indicated that pass was the way 
to go.  The hesitation was clearly based on extra, rather than marginal, 
strength, and my analysis of the distribution may well have been wrong. As a 
rule, I do not like playing Qxxxxx opposite a stiff when the opponents 
appear to have the majority of the cards.

Guthrie:

Q2 Tou are directing the Bundeslign (German premiar-division) and the
auction is as follows
(1N 12-14) AP
You hold the same hand as above. 1N goes 1 down and that would have
been the fate of 2S had you bid it.
Partner holds S:x H:KQxx D:AJxx C:AQxx
As the TD, do you see a problem?

Hirsch:
Not really.  Balancing on a 2-count with a weak suit is not normally a LA. 
Looking as a TD, and now seeing the hand, my guess above appears to have 
been correct. The hitch was clearly the stiff spade, since a hand with that 
kind of strenth is normally an automatic double.  But knowledge of the spade 
shortness would suggest a pass, if anything.  I am not going to call the 
pathetic suit in balancing seat a LA. I''m not adjusting anything on this 
hand as the problem was given.