[blml] Groundhog Day [SEC=UNOFFICIAL]

[richard.hills at immi.gov.au]

Richard Hills blml posting 14th May 2004:

Context plays a part in subconsciously
biasing a player's selection of logical
alternatives.  But context might also play a
part in subconsciously biasing a TD away
from the requirement of an impartial
judgement of the facts.

When the first Groundhog Day problem was
proposed to the Australian Bridge Directors'
panel, South had chosen a successful 6H
alternative, which some panellists thought
was not a logical alternative.  Did this
context subconsciously bias some panellists
into ruling that North's hesitation was a
demonstrable suggestion?  E.g. ->

David Stevenson:

[snip]

>>>However, experience shows that players
>>>get this sort of position right, so the
>>>UI must suggest something to this pair.
>>>South's action, holding an ace, is pretty
>>>incredible anyway.

[snip]

When the second Groundhog Day problem was
proposed to the blml panel, South had chosen
a successful Pass, and the East-West pair
were seemingly trying to sea-lawyer their
way out of a bad result.  Did this context
subconsciously bias some panellists into
ruling that North's hesitation did *not*
suggest anything?  E.g. ->

Herman De Wael:

>>By asking for two adjustments at once, EW
>>tell us they cannot tell which of the
>>alternatives is suggested by the
>>hesitation.  Therefore, no alternative
>>can be said to be _demonstrably_
>>suggested by the hesitation. Thus, no UI
>>infraction.

[snip]

Two identical South hands, two identical
auctions to South's crucial decision, with
two identical hesitations by North.

In one context, a very respected TD had no
difficulty in ruling that North's
hesitation was a demonstrable suggestion.
In another context, a very respected TD
had no difficulty in ruling that North's
hesitation was *not* a demonstrable
suggestion.

Did these two very respected TDs rule in
accordance with an objective assessment
of what the hesitation demonstrably
suggested?

Or did these two very respected TDs rule
in accordance with their little lists, due
to a subconscious bias caused by context?

W.S. Gilbert:

>As some day it must happen
>   that a victim must be found,
>I've got a little list -
>   I've got a little list
>Of society offenders
>   who might well be under ground
>And who never would be missed -
>   who never would be missed!


Best wishes

Richard James Hills
Divisional Executive Officer unit
People Services, Values & Training Division
Department of Immigration and Citizenship
(02) 6225 6285

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