[blml] Splinter of the Mind's Eye [SEC=UNOFFICIAL]

[Jerry Fusselman]

> Matchpoint pairs
> Dlr: East
> Vul: North-South
>
> The bidding has gone:
>
> SOUTH     WEST      NORTH     EAST
> ---       ---       ---       1D
> Pass      2C        Dble      3S(1)
> Dble      3NT       Pass      ?
>
> (1) Alerted and explained as a splinter
> bid, club support and a singleton spade
>
> You, East, hold:
>
> Q
> AJ
> AKT76
> KQ863
>
> What call do you make?
> What other calls do you consider making?
>

First a question:  Which suit, if any, should North be aching to lead?
  The answer determines which contract is best for East to choose.

I ran this problem through my deal simulator, and my conclusions are
that at matchpoints, 6NT is best unless North is likely to lead a
heart, in which case 6C is standout.  3NT is terrible, and a 4H cue
bid is unwise due to South's ability to double it for a damaging lead.
 In the simulations, a heart lead often sets 6NT, and occasionally it
sets 6C.

I have not been able to determine whether asking for aces is wise or
not.  Maybe it is wise if 6C is your target and unwise if 6NT is your
target.

At IMPs, 6C seems to be the best contract, with maybe a marginal
improvement if you ask for aces.

You can easily check my assumptions and conclusions, and I hope someone does.

I gave East the hand in question and I made these
realistic-to-pessimistic requirements for the West hand:

1.  Exactly 11 HCP (no adjustments, so Qx still counts as 2);

2.  Exactly three spades, including the SK (Sometimes the SA or J appears too);

3.  More clubs than any other suit (Sometimes the 3=3=3=4 shape appears);

4.  Fewer than four diamonds.

I ran 72 such otherwise random deals through a double-dummy analyser,
but I looked at the deals myself as well.  The hands that make 6C seem
to have remarkably straightforward play.  The pdf of the deals and
results is available on request.


4% (3/72) of the time, West has two aces and they made 7C all three
times.  (In my simulations, since West has the SK too, the hands fit
very well.)

1% makes 7NT.

1% 6C might go down 2 with perfect defense and a 4-0 trump break.

4% 6C fails on a heart lead.

3% 6C fails due to missing two aces.

22% 6C fails to the DQ or J.

70% 6C makes, even if you do not check for aces.  Checking for aces
seems to move this to almost 72% and gives you shot at a good 7C.

32%  6NT makes with perfect double-dummy defense---usually a heart
lead is required.

59% 6NT makes if the opponents have no particular reason to lead
hearts and do not know about immediate ruffs, etc.. Checking for aces
seems unwise if it might help South double for a heart lead.   This
59% number is based on my estimate of likely leads if North does not
think a heart lead is specifically called for, but it has by far the
most subjectivity of my percentages.

Remember, these numbers are based on 11 HCP, and West might have more.
 Since West can have more, and because North might not think hearts
are important to lead, I can see someone deciding that 6NT is better
than 6C at matchpoints.  So, should North know that hearts are
important to lead?

Jerry Fusselman