[blml] opening lead vs 3N

[Hans van Staveren]

Eric wrote:

I find out what North actually led.  I ask him to explain why he  
chose that lead.  I ask him what he thinks his reasoning might have  
been had he gotten a correct explanation.  Having absorbed and  
contemplated that information, I will assign weights for 3NT +5  
(spade lead), +4 (diamond lead) and -1 (heart lead).  (If the opening  
lead at the table was not a spade, the explanations might induce me  
to give zero weight to the possibility of a spade lead.)
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I add that the percentage I would use for a heart lead are unlikely to be
above 20%, since this is a highly unlikely lead.

Hans