[blml] Réf. : Re: opening lead vs 3N

[Alain Gottcheiner]

-------Message original-------
 
(If the opening
lead at the table was not a spade, the explanations might induce me
to give zero weight to the possibility of a spade lead.)
 
 
AG : sorry, IBTD. With the explanations given, responder does hold a 4-card
spade suit (didn't care about hearts), so the fact that a spade wasn't led
doesn't prove anything, except that LHO did understand the explanation.
 
But it doesn't change that much anyway.
 
Say the right explanation was given.
Either the player is an aggressive leader, one would lead a spade and the
probability of a heart lead is quite low ; or one is a cautious leader, one
would lead a diamond, and the probability of a heart lead is rather low
still. 
IOW, the probability of a heart lead isn't that much dependent from the
actual lead, so you might as well neglect this factor.  
 
 
Best regards
 
 
   Alain
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