[blml] adjudication

[Eric Landau]

On Jun 27, 2007, at 4:56 AM, Nigel wrote:

> Several times in this thread, I've high-lighted Bob Geller's
> adjustment. I called it *texture*. It is one of several possible
> adjustment factors. Among others are honour *distribution*,
> *concentration*, and *placement* (all terms defined earlier).
>
> Pairs vary in how much they adjust for such factors. Some BLMLers
> write that they adjust by plus or minus 2 points or more. I adjust
> less Anyway, it does not matter in my case, because like most walrus,
> I declare the full raw HCP range).
>
> When we walrus declare 12-14 HCP (say) we mean 12-14 HCP. Others
> declare 12-14 HCP and mean 10-16 HCP.
>
> Apparently, I'm unique in BLML in advocating that the law should
> insist that pairs declare HCP accurately and adjustments separately.
>
> That isn't a perfect solution; just simpler and better than current
> practice.

Perhaps the rest of BLML has a better intuitive understanding of  
probability and statistics.

When you have a sample from a probability distribution (e.g. of the  
number of HCP in a 1NT opener) that clusters around a mean (e.g. 13  
HCP), it is far more meaningful and useful to know the range into  
which, say, 95% of the observations fall than the range that includes  
100% of them.  The latter is determined entirely by the most extreme  
outliers, while the former gives you a much truer notion of how wide  
or narrow the probabilty curve really is.  Both, of course, are  
equally "accurate".

Some day Nigel could encounter a 17-HCP hand that he deems  
appropriate to open 1NT, and will then, forever after, feel compelled  
to describe his 12-14 1NT opening as "10-17", eventually going to his  
grave without ever having found another 17-HCP 1NT opener.  That just  
doesn't seem like a useful approach.


Eric Landau
1107 Dale Drive
Silver Spring MD 20910
ehaa at starpower.net