[blml] adjudication

[Nigel]

[Eric Landau]
Perhaps the rest of BLML has a better intuitive understanding of
probability and statistics.
[nige1]
Thank you Eric :)

[Eric]
When you have a sample from a probability distribution (e.g. of the
number of HCP in a 1NT opener) that clusters around a mean (e.g. 13
HCP), it is far more meaningful and useful to know the range into
which, say, 95% of the observations fall than the range that includes
100% of them.  The latter is determined entirely by the most extreme
outliers, while the former gives you a much truer notion of how wide
or narrow the probabilty curve really is.  Both, of course, are
equally "accurate".
[nige1]
You can disclose the true range for the benefit of us ignorant Walrus 
:) also the mean the variance for clever BLML arithmeticians :)

[Eric]
Some day Nigel could encounter a 17-HCP hand that he deems
appropriate to open 1NT, and will then, forever after, feel compelled
to describe his 12-14 1NT opening as "10-17", eventually going to his
grave without ever having found another 17-HCP 1NT opener.  That just
doesn't seem like a useful approach.
[nige1]
No problem for a Walrus. Tsetse, my preferred system, employs a 14-15 
HCP 1N opener at all forms of scoring, at all vulnerabilities, in all 
positions. I've never opened 1N outside that range but if I did it 
would be a *mistake* or a *psych* :) not a spurious *adjustment* :)