[blml] Failure to see alert [SEC=UNOFFICIAL]

[richard.hills at immi.gov.au]

The Appeal from East/West:

>>In the opinion of some members, East/West did not do
>>enough to protect their own interests. East might well
>>have suspected that an auction of 4C-Pass-4H indicated
>>Namyats, and it was not certain that he did check the
>>Convention Card.
>>
>>However in the end, it was decided that the infractions
>>that were committed by North/South were too severe not
>>to give East/West the benefit of the doubt.

Konrad Ciborowski:

[snip]

>3. How often have you seen a natural 4C - 4H sequence?
>I haven't seen it even once in my entire life. If you're
>saying that looking at KJT752 South from the second case
>should have got a clue that 2C was artificial and at the
>same time you're saying that if your opponents bid 4C -
>4H then there is no reason so suspect Namyats then puh-
>leeze... 4C - 4H smells Namyats from 100 miles.

[snip]

Richard Hills:

A confusion of "a priori" and "a posteriori" chances.  An
opening bid of 4C is "a priori" likely to be a Namyats
strong 4H transfer in expert circles.  It is a faddishly
popular expert convention.  But "a posteriori", after the
failure to alert 4C, the odds change

For example, in the expert Ali-Hills partnership, the "a
posteriori" meaning of a 4C opening and a 4H response is
that:

(a) the opener has a preempt with long clubs, and
(b) the responder does not care, since the responder has
strong values with equally long hearts.

And, of course, my partnership has naturally seen the
auction 4C (natural) - 4H (natural) more than once in a
lifetime, since that is our own personal agreement which
comes up every so often.  It seems that Konrad does not
use a natural 4C in his own partnerships, so his "not
once in my entire life" experience is distorted by his
own personal failure to use the sensible natural method.


Best wishes

Richard James Hills, amicus curiae
National Training Branch, DIAC
02 6225 6285

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