[blml] The sixth sick sheik's sixth sheep is sick

[Brian]

On Tue, 02 Oct 2007 16:21:45 +0200
Herman De Wael <hermandw at skynet.be> wrote:

> 
> Well Brian, the next time you are playing with a partner who makes
> you a bid that's an exact 50/50 guess, be sure to let us know.
> In my opinion, such a situation is totally impossible.
> 

Well it happens regularly online, Herman, but I expect you won't count
that. 

So, the last time I can remember it happening in F2F bridge...
Well, it would probably be one of the times I was the designated host
at the club at which I used to play in England. If you're unfamiliar
with the system, each week a different player is designated as a host,
and if an odd number of players turn up on the night, the host's partner
goes home. 

Playing as the host usually means you get about as long to discuss a
system as you do in online bridge, because you're playing with the
last unpaired player to walk through the door, and you only know it
when the TD starts the movement. 

So, what could it have been? RKC or standard Blackwood? Transfers on or
off over a 1NT overcall that gets doubled, or over a double of opps 1NT?
D0P1 or P0D1? There will have been something...

> Except for the very first table you play with him, and except against 
> his regular partner's, you know more about your partner's system than 
> your opponents do. 

OK, I'll bite. Let's take one of my examples above. Explain to me how
playing different contracts somehow helps me decide whether pard plays
transfers on or off when the bidding goes (1S)-1NT (15-18)- (dbl) to
me. You've got my usual collection, S xx  H xxxxx  D xxx  C xxx. 
Which are you going to bid, 2D or 2H, and *why*? Since you think the
earlier tables were important, let's say that you're 20 boards into the
session, you know your partner plays transfers over your opening 1NT,
but this is the first time either of you have overcalled 1NT. You want
more information? OK, I would usually retain transfers in that
situation, and pard has played against me enough times to know it, and
pard doesn't usually play transfers in that situation, and I've played
against him enough times to know it. Is he trying to follow my system,
or am I trying to follow his? I await your explanation with interest. 



> That "more" translates in you having a 60/40
> guess, at least. If you don't tell them which of the two is the 60% 
> probability, you are a cheat. If you decide to follow the 40% 
> probability one, you are a fool. Since I don't want to call you 
> neither a cheat nor a fool, I assume you will tell them which is the 
> 60% option.
> 

Herman, you need to review the earlier messages in this thread. The
situation postulated is that you don't know what you're playing, and
the TD forces you to guess. If I know it's 60-40 in favour of one of
the bids, then the TD isn't going to be forcing me to guess. 

> And if it is truely 50/50, you've earnt yourself a bottle of 
> champagne, and your reasoning above would be true. I consider that a 
> very infrequent happening, and I (as TD) won't believe it if you tell 
> me it is. I'll force you to reveal the 51% option.
> 

And if I honestly believe it to be a total guess, with two
possibilities which I can't split (the only circumstances under which
a TD would be forcing me to guess), then I'll flip a coin, and go with
whatever it "decides". I don't believe you can differentiate between a
49% and 51% possibility when you're talking about possible meanings,
but do feel free to convince me otherwise - with an ACTUAL example. 


Brian. 

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