[blml] The sixth sick sheik's sixth sheep is sick

[Herman De Wael]

Brian wrote:
> On Tue, 02 Oct 2007 16:21:45 +0200
> Herman De Wael <hermandw at skynet.be> wrote:
> 
>> Well Brian, the next time you are playing with a partner who makes
>> you a bid that's an exact 50/50 guess, be sure to let us know.
>> In my opinion, such a situation is totally impossible.
>>
> 
> Well it happens regularly online, Herman, but I expect you won't count
> that. 
> 
> So, the last time I can remember it happening in F2F bridge...
> Well, it would probably be one of the times I was the designated host
> at the club at which I used to play in England. If you're unfamiliar
> with the system, each week a different player is designated as a host,
> and if an odd number of players turn up on the night, the host's partner
> goes home. 
> 
> Playing as the host usually means you get about as long to discuss a
> system as you do in online bridge, because you're playing with the
> last unpaired player to walk through the door, and you only know it
> when the TD starts the movement. 
> 
> So, what could it have been? RKC or standard Blackwood? Transfers on or
> off over a 1NT overcall that gets doubled, or over a double of opps 1NT?
> D0P1 or P0D1? There will have been something...
> 

And I'm sure there is some pecking order which will tell you which it 
more likely is.
Anyway, if it's anything important, he won't use a system that you 
won't understand, and he'll hope you'll have the pecking order right.

And if you happen to guess correctly - why should the TD believe it 
was just a 50/50 guess and not some 70/30 one?

>> Except for the very first table you play with him, and except against 
>> his regular partner's, you know more about your partner's system than 
>> your opponents do. 
> 
> OK, I'll bite. Let's take one of my examples above. Explain to me how
> playing different contracts somehow helps me decide whether pard plays
> transfers on or off when the bidding goes (1S)-1NT (15-18)- (dbl) to
> me. You've got my usual collection, S xx  H xxxxx  D xxx  C xxx. 
> Which are you going to bid, 2D or 2H, and *why*? Since you think the
> earlier tables were important, let's say that you're 20 boards into the
> session, you know your partner plays transfers over your opening 1NT,
> but this is the first time either of you have overcalled 1NT. You want
> more information? OK, I would usually retain transfers in that
> situation, and pard has played against me enough times to know it, and
> pard doesn't usually play transfers in that situation, and I've played
> against him enough times to know it. Is he trying to follow my system,
> or am I trying to follow his? I await your explanation with interest. 
> 

Well, of course you're always going to be able to construct examples 
where it would be 50/50 - but are you certain you're telling me 
everything? Since this is a constructed example, you could say you're 
sure, but in real life? There's probably some joint memory of the both 
of you of the time you played on the same team, or with the same 
partner. Or maybe you've been discussing a few other things and have 
settled on your usual methods, so he's thinking "I'll follow him in 
this one as well".

The point being that if you're going to treat it as one thing, and you 
happen to guess correctly, you're never going to convince me (as TD) 
that it was just a 50/50 guess.

> 
> 
>> That "more" translates in you having a 60/40
>> guess, at least. If you don't tell them which of the two is the 60% 
>> probability, you are a cheat. If you decide to follow the 40% 
>> probability one, you are a fool. Since I don't want to call you 
>> neither a cheat nor a fool, I assume you will tell them which is the 
>> 60% option.
>>
> 
> Herman, you need to review the earlier messages in this thread. The
> situation postulated is that you don't know what you're playing, and
> the TD forces you to guess. If I know it's 60-40 in favour of one of
> the bids, then the TD isn't going to be forcing me to guess. 
> 

And in the message just previous to the one I replied to, you did 
mention that 50/50 (IIRC).

>> And if it is truely 50/50, you've earnt yourself a bottle of 
>> champagne, and your reasoning above would be true. I consider that a 
>> very infrequent happening, and I (as TD) won't believe it if you tell 
>> me it is. I'll force you to reveal the 51% option.
>>
> 
> And if I honestly believe it to be a total guess, with two
> possibilities which I can't split (the only circumstances under which
> a TD would be forcing me to guess), then I'll flip a coin, and go with
> whatever it "decides". I don't believe you can differentiate between a
> 49% and 51% possibility when you're talking about possible meanings,
> but do feel free to convince me otherwise - with an ACTUAL example. 
> 
> 
> Brian. 
> 


-- 
Herman DE WAEL
Antwerpen Belgium
http://users.skynet.be/hermandw/index.html