[blml] The sixth sick sheik's sixth sheep is sick

[Herman De Wael]

Brian wrote:
> On Wed, 03 Oct 2007 09:22:25 +0200
> Herman De Wael <hermandw at skynet.be> wrote:
> 
> <...>
> 
>> And if you happen to guess correctly - why should the TD believe it 
>> was just a 50/50 guess and not some 70/30 one?
>>
> 
> Why should a TD believe anything a player says, in that case? 
> 
> <...>
> 
>> The point being that if you're going to treat it as one thing, and
>> you happen to guess correctly, you're never going to convince me (as
>> TD) that it was just a 50/50 guess.
>>
> 
> Then you need to try to persuade the WBFLC to change the Laws to follow
> Nigel's view, and to get the NCBOs to follow suit (when I last played
> in England, the EBU Orange Book very specifically prohibited players
> from saying how they were going to take an undiscussed bid. That may or
> may not have changed in later revisions, I don't know). 
> 

But we're not talking about an undiscussed bid. An undiscussed bid is 
something that does not matter. If I forget to arrange beforehand if 
we're playing 4-card diamonds or better minor, then "undiscussed" is 
true, and a full explanation. I don't have to "guess" which one it is, 
because it does not matter. It's natural, OK.

But if my partner bids 3Cl, then I won't, for a moment, accept 
"undiscussed" as a valid answer, when "undiscussed" means anything 
other than "undiscussed, so obviously natural and weak" (if that is 
the default meaning of your club). If the partner turns up with a 5-5 
in the majors, I will rule MI.

I don't care what the EBU give as advice to players - if, as a TD, I 
find that two partners are on the same wavelength, and they have 
answered "undiscussed", then I'm ruling MI. And thus the advice _I_ 
give to the players is to tell their opponents their educated guesses, 
and not hide behind "undiscussed".

> Until that day happens, you (as TD) are expected to rule according to
> the Laws, and if I say that I am faced with two equally likely
> alternatives, then you either believe me, or you call me a cheat, but
> you cannot, of your own volition, say that there is no such thing as a
> 50/50 guess just because of the (presumably) 50% of times that a player
> faced with such a guess will get it right. 
> 

Well, if you want me to rule according to the laws, do not cite EBU 
regulations to me, especially if they use wording that you are hiding 
behind.
And I maintain that there is no such thing as a 50/50 guess. You know 
your partner, he knows you, and he is trying to tell you something. 
The footnote tells me to rule MI if I find that you could have known 
more than you were telling. If that means that I rule against you, 
then so be it. Take my advice and tell them your guess, or don't take 
my advice and get a MI ruling. My advice does not have the power of 
Law, but my ruling will be the same regardless.


-- 
Herman DE WAEL
Antwerpen Belgium
http://users.skynet.be/hermandw/index.html