[blml] The sixth sick sheik's sixth sheep is sick

[Herman De Wael]

Hallo Matthias,

Matthias Berghaus wrote:
> Herman De Wael schrieb:
>> And I'm sure there is some pecking order which will tell you which it 
>> more likely is.
>>   
> 
> Herman, I wonder where you are playing. Maybe I should play there too, 
> but it sounds too much like paradise.
> I do not want to comment on dWs vs. whatever, but I assure you that 
> there are many situations where it is 50/50, and you are glad it is not 
> 33/33/33. I grant you that "no idea" is often abused, but you should 
> realize that it happens, and more often than you think.
> 

I cannot imagine it does, but let's read on:

>> Anyway, if it's anything important, he won't use a system that you 
>> won't understand, 
> 
> Get real. Of course any responsible partner will act as you describe, 
> but the vast majority of potential partners do not fall in that 
> category. They will bid away with abandon, because everything is clear 
> to them, so it is clear to everybody else, isn`t it? 

Of course it is. And in those cases, it will be clear to you as well. 
Most often, if a player is so deluded as to think there is only one 
possible meaning for a bid, then that meaning is also known to his 
partner, even if that player is well aware that alternatives are possible.
Of course there are times when you play with such a total stranger 
that even that one meaning is unknown to you, but are we really 
talking about those cases?

> Most players have 
> no idea how to bid at all, so you (and any sensible player) cultivates 
> those partners who do. That does not make the others vanish, and from 
> time to time you meet them, or you meet a sensible players who decides 
> that a nebulous bid gives him the best chance to land in the right contract.
> 
> There are more 50/50ies than you think, and there are more 60/40ies than 
> others believe.
> 

Thank you for that semi-support.

>> and he'll hope you'll have the pecking order right.
>>
>> And if you happen to guess correctly - why should the TD believe it 
>> was just a 50/50 guess and not some 70/30 one?
>>
>>   
>>>> Except for the very first table you play with him, and except against 
>>>> his regular partner's, you know more about your partner's system than 
>>>> your opponents do. 
>>>>       
> Sorry, no. From time to time I have to help out until a certain player 
> closes shop and reaches the club. I can you assure you that the players 
> I play against have a better idea what my "partner" does than I have. 
> Oh, I am learning, no doubt about that, but there is much uncharted 
> territory to cover. Some situations are better than 50/50, others are 
> worse. Cue-bid: Showing a stop, asking for a stop, showing a fit? No 
> idea. ask me after the hand.... My opps could probably tell me, they are 
> used to "systems" like that, but they know  I am groping in the dark, 
> and they like to see someone guess wrong. What is better, they expect me 
> to tell them if I have any inkling of what is going on (by alerting), so 
> they even know whether I am on the right track or not. I do not usually 
> play with players of the class in question, nor do I play against them, 
> so my learning curve is not what I would call steep....
> 

Matthias, you are talking about the category of cases I call 
exceptions. Of course those exist. I alluded to them myself when I 
said "in the very first board you play".
But I don't believe this is the category of cases that we are talking 
about.

When Nigel says the TD should be able to force a player to guess, he 
is not talking about the player who is genuinely unaware, but to the 
one who needs a "guess" to determine what his partner is trying to 
tell him. Such a "guess" is based on much more than mere guesswork, 
and that much more needs to be divulged. And it boils down to telling 
them the guess.

So I really think this whole discussion is about what constitutes a 
guess. Real guesses need not be disclosed, since there is nothing to 
disclose. But quite frequently, what players call guesses are educated 
guesses, and those need to be told (or at least the education needs to 
be given, which I believe turns out to be the same thing).


-- 
Herman DE WAEL
Antwerpen Belgium
http://users.skynet.be/hermandw/index.html