[blml] Return to Oz [SEC=UNOFFICIAL]

[Wayne Burrows]

On 12/02/2008, richard.hills at immi.gov.au <richard.hills at immi.gov.au> wrote:
> >>I think Victorians might pass :)
> >>
> >>Tony (Sydney)
>
> >+=+ And Edwardians? +=+
>
> Swiss Teams with imps converted to WBF VPs
> (including difference of 0-10 = 0 imps)
>
> Dlr: North
> Vul: East-West
>
> The bidding has gone:
>
> WEST      NORTH     EAST      SOUTH
> ---       1S        3H(1)     Pass
> 4H        Pass(2)   Pass      4S
> Pass      Pass      5H        Pass
> Pass      Dble      Pass      Pass
> Pass
>
> (1) Weak jump overcall
> (2) Break in tempo
>
> Result: 5Hx by East, +500 to North-South
>
> The complete deal (note that North's
> hesitation was not a deceptive infraction of
> the 2007 Law 73F - North had full values for
> his pause):
>
>                 AK987
>                 ---
>                 AT432
>                 KQT
> QT                              J5
> A974                            KJT86532
> KJ86                            5
> AJ7                             62
>                 6432
>                 Q
>                 Q97
>                 98543
>
> The Director adjusts the score to 4H (not
> doubled) by East, +100 to North-South.
>
> North-South elect to appeal.
>
> As the Appeals Committee, what ruling would
> you make?
> As the Appeals Committee, what other ruling
> would you consider making?
>

My view is that the slow pass does not suggest bidding.  Rather it
makes it more likely that partner has some extra values with some
heart length which makes it more likely that the 4H contract will
fail.

Therefore I would allow the 4S bid.

I did an interesting simulation that I posted on the forums at Bridge
Base on this hand.  Here is the relevant piece from that forum:

"I just had a thought to do an interesting pair of simulations since I
am fond of simulations. On the condition that partner had a fairly
normal 1S opening but not extra values and shortish hearts suitable
for some action over 4H with the opponents having a heart pre-empt and
either great heart support of significant values.

The second simulation was similar but you knew that partner had extra
values (15+).

In the first simulation bidding 4S gained around 5 IMPs on average and
in the second bidding 4S lost 3 IMPs on average.

This seems to clearly indicated that bidding 4S is right without
additional information and that it is not indicated by the extra
information that partner has extra values.

Here are the exact conditions I put in the simulation:

Partner has five or six spades (he is more likely to do something
himself with more);
Partner has 12-19 hcp (11-18 if a six-card suit);
Partner either has three or more hearts or fewer than 16 hcp.

RHO has 7 hearts;
RHO has 6-9 hcp;

LHO has 3+ hearts or 13+ hcp;

We have the actual hand given.

In the second simulation everything was the same except that Partner
had shown (by the hesitation) say 15+ hcp but not a hand short in
hearts that might have made a takeout double.

I'd be happy to vary these parameters to see how they change the outcome."

Wayne