[blml] A question of player ability
Karel
karel at esatclear.ie
Fri Mar 14 15:50:35 CET 2008
I'll give 2 examples reported to me from a local club game.
(1) Declarer is in 4H's and has DQTxx opposite DJ9 in a side suit.
In spades SAK8 opposite SJ9xx. The opps have lead and knocked out
declarer CA which were 2/2 to start with. So at this point in time
Dec. has 3 losers (2 diamonds + 1 club). The contract is stone cold
as you knock out the DAK and discard your S8 on the DQ. Rigid.
The declarer led the SJ, covered by the Q and won, back to dummy with
a trump and led a spade to the 8 won. Cashed a trump high in hand.
Cashed the SA break 3/3 and pitched a loser on the 3rd spade via a 3rd
trump to dummy. Dec had to use dummy trump entries to do this so ran
the risk of a spade ruff (spades 5/1).
Percentage wise this needs spades 3/3 AND QTx under the AK8, spades
not to be 5/1 or incur a ruff. So 25% * 36% = 9% probably less. This
declarer did not see RHO's cards (1st thing I asked) and was more than
good enough to know this was a very poor line. If the SJ is not
covered it is now huge odds its going to lose if run and the opps will
cash out for -1 and a duck. Not only that but you cannot now
legitimately make the contract as you have given away the tempo and
set up a spade loser for the opps.
so 9% versus 100%, declarer once he leads the SJ is fully commited to
9%, and is more than good enough to know this. What's going on ?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(2) S KQJTxxxx H- D Jx C xxx
Bidding goes 1H P 7S all pass
1H opener has
S Ax H Jxxx D AQT9 C Ax
Diamond finesse works and K drops ... care to explain this ?
I can come up with lots of inexplicable scenarios, some real clangers,
others dubious at best, some have a small measure of logic but vastly
against the odds for the risk taken (case 1). There are situations
like this which have no bridge logic. Is there any recourse in the
laws ?
K.
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