[blml] Detroit NABC+ Case 1 -- What do you bid and why [SEC=UNOFFICIAL]

[richard.hills at immi.gov.au]

Adam Wildavsky:

[snip]

>Playing matchpoints, in first seat at favorable vulnerability you
>pick up:
>
>954
>3
>JT4
>JT9865
>
>You pass, LHO opens a 15-17 point NT, RHO transfers to hearts, and
>2H is passed around to you. It will not surprise you to learn that
>your partner did not have a penalty double of 1NT available. He did
>have calls available to show any two suits.

[snip]

>Knowing partner huddled, and wanting to follow the laws, what is
>your call, and why?

Richard Hills:

"A flaw in balancing theory is that it makes the unjustified
assumption that the opponents know what they are doing."

First uttered by Richard Hills in April 2008.  However, a similar
idea was expressed by David Bird in his monks of St Titus bridge
stories when he invented the Biltcliffe Coup.

Three times during a single match Brother Biltcliffe balanced when
the opponents had stopped in a partscore.  Three times the
opponents bid game.  Three times Brother Biltcliffe doubled.  Three
times the doubled game made.

In this case you have UI that pard is super-strong and consequently
that the opponents are less likely to employ the Biltcliffe Coup of
bidding and making 4Hx if you balance.

Ergo, since the UI indicates that the debacle of -790 after a
balance will not occur, it is Pass which is the only legal logical
alternative.


Best wishes

Richard James Hills
Graduates and Developmental Training Section
Department of Immigration and Citizenship
Telephone: 02 6223 9067
Email: richard.hills at immi.gov.au

Important Notice: If you have received this email by mistake, please advise
the sender and delete the message and attachments immediately.  This email,
including attachments, may contain confidential, sensitive, legally
privileged and/or copyright information.  Any review, retransmission,
dissemination or other use of this information by persons or entities other
than the intended recipient is prohibited. DIAC respects your privacy and
has obligations under the Privacy Act 1988. The official departmental
privacy policy can be viewed on the department's website at www.immi.gov.au
See: http://www.immi.gov.au/functional/privacy.htm