[blml] Detroit NABC+ Case 1 -- What do you bid and why?

[Konrad Ciborowski]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Adam Wildavsky" <adam at tameware.com>
To: "Bridge Laws Mailing List" <blml at amsterdamned.org>
Sent: Monday, May 05, 2008 7:32 AM
Subject: [blml] Detroit NABC+ Case 1 -- What do you bid and why?


> If you haven't seen the case write-up yet please refrain a little
> longer. I'll give just the hand in question for now, though knowing
> the whole deal shouldn't make much of a difference.
>
> Playing matchpoints, in first seat at favorable vulnerability you pick up:
>
> 954
> 3
> JT4
> JT9865
>
> You pass, LHO opens a 15-17 point NT, RHO transfers to hearts, and 2H
> is passed around to you. It will not surprise you to learn that your
> partner did not have a penalty double of 1NT available. He did have
> calls available to show any two suits.
>
> I won't ask what your call is. I'm confident a poll would be split
> between Pass and 3C, each of which I would consider a logical choice.
>
> It will also not surprise you to learn, since this is BLML, that
> partner hesitated for 20 seconds or so before passing 1NT.
>
> Let's make a few assumptions. One is that, since the opponents will
> hold at most 25 HCP, partner holds at least 13 HCP,

13 HCP?

So RHO has 8+ HCP with a five carder and doesn't even _invite_
game? Come on.
And opener holding 17 HCP himself with almost always 3+H
doesn't break the transfer? And these two events has just happened
at the same time? Give me a break.

Yes, everything can happen in bridge, but what are the odds?

If we allow for the possibility of partner holding 13 HCP
that we might as well start considering that
RHO holds 19 HCP and has pulled the
wrong card at his second turn or that opener.has psyched
in first seat. Or that responder transferred to hearts
holding 6C and a heart singleton.
And so on.

It has nothing to do with serious analysis.

Konrad Ciborowski
Krakow, Poland 


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