[blml] "Demonstrably" - practical meaning?
Guthrie
Guthrie at NTLworld.com
Sat May 17 18:31:44 CEST 2008
[Nige1]
I am afraid that there will be a substantial minority of
directors, who, like Paul Lamford and Alain Gottcheiner, reject
arguments based on the balance of probability.
[lamford] Not so. For a bid to be demonstrably suggested, I offered the
opinion that a split view as to whether it was suggested at all made it
seem improbable that it was demonstrably suggested. There is nothing
much wrong with the word *demonstrably*. Let us say that LHO opens 5C
and partner passes after a BIT, greater than that allowed. RHO passes.
Partner must have been considering bidding or doubling. I would say that
the bid that caters for the hand partner is most likely to have for a
BIT is the one that is demonstrably suggested. Assuming of course that
our bid is not automatic. So the balance of probability comes into the
equation very strongly.
[Nige2]
[A] Paul's view seems impractical because, in BLML and elsewhere, there
is always a dispute over which action is suggested by unauthorised
information.
[B] I have long held that the a priori probability of the various hands
that partner could hold, should be taken into account as part of the
estimate of the balance of probability.
[C] In another post Paul says that the law permits you to choose
*illogical* alternatives; but that is against the spirit of the law.
Most legal experts judge it to be illegal. For example, some BLMLers
argue that a seemingly *illogical* alternative, invoked to wriggle out
of the law is, in fact, quite *logical* in that *context*.
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