[blml] Detroit NABC+ Case 1 -- What do you bid and why?

[Guthrie]

[Adam Wildavsky]
[SNIP] ... when South has 20 HCP or more, roughly matching the UI case. 
For the UI case I also added that South would not be 4333, since with 
that shape he would never have a problem over 1NT.

South is balanced. Further, if South hold 16 HCP or more he holds at
least 3 hearts, since otherwise he'd have doubled 2 hearts.
South does not hold five spades, since then he might have bid over 2H.

[Nige1]
[A] IMO, South is as likely to hold 4333 as any other flat shape (4432 
or 5332) without a good 5 card major. Arguably, with none of these 
hands, has South any legitimate reason to hesitate.

[B] As Richard Hills points out, without South's hesitation, there is a 
significant danger that reopening with 3C will accomplish a *Biltcliffe* 
coup. Biltcliffe, an expert at Reading Bridge Club, was  notorious for 
re-opening the bidding on rubbish, allowing opponents a second bite at 
the cherry, so that they could reach a successful game or slam.

In an earlier post on this topic, I gave a recent example (repeated below).

In a recent county teams competition, my 15-18 notrump was
followed by two passes. My LHO did not hestitate so there was no 
unauthorised information but otherwise my RHO faced a problem similar to 
NABC1. Opponents' partnership agreement included various distributional 
overcalls but no penalty double. RHO held a weak distributional hand but 
passed in sleep. That scored well when it turned out that I had 
miscounted my points, opening 1N on 19 HCP. We missed a cold 3N :(

More "Biltcliffe Coup" nomenclature:

Biltcliffe accepted -- opponents take advantage of your protection to 
recover and bid their game or slam.

Biltcliffe declined -- when you reopen but opponents don't take 
advantage as above.

Biltcliffe twice declined -- when you twice reopen on the same board but 
opponents repeatedly fail to take advantage as above.

and so on ...

My best effort, after 1C and 2 passes, was reopening with 1S, so that 
opponents could recover to bid and make 7H :(